U.S. Markets End Four-Week Losing Streak Amid Trade Policy Developments

European Markets Decline
In contrast, European markets closed lower, primarily impacted by a downturn in the travel sector, particularly after the shutdown of London's Heathrow Airport. The pan-European STOXX 600 index fell by 0.6%, with both the CAC 40 and FTSE 100 experiencing similar declines. Germany's DAX slipped by 0.5%, and travel and leisure stocks dropped by 1.6%, putting pressure on airline stocks.

Mixed Performance in Asia
Asian markets displayed mixed results; Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index dropped by 2.19%, and China's CSI 300 fell by 1.52%. Japan's Nikkei 225 lost 2%, while the Topix index managed a slight gain of 0.29%, extending its winning streak to seven sessions. South Korea's Kospi saw a 0.23% increase, contributing to a five-day rally, although the small-cap KOSDAQ slipped by 0.79%. Notably, Indian markets surged more than 4% this week, marking their strongest performance in four years.

Crude Oil Prices and OPEC+ Supply Cuts
Crude oil prices received a boost from a new OPEC+ agreement to implement further supply cuts, with seven member countries agreeing to reduce output until mid-2026 to address prior overproduction. This follows the latest sanctions from Washington targeting Iranian crude oil shipments, which analysts predict could decrease exports by around 1 million barrels per day.

Gold Market Trends
Gold prices fell by 1% on Friday, retreating from record highs as the U.S. dollar strengthened. However, the precious metal still managed a 7% weekly gain, marking its third consecutive week of increases. Spot gold settled at $3,014 an ounce, while U.S. gold futures closed at $3,021.

Focus on Central Banks and Trade Policies
Looking forward, traders will be monitoring comments from global central banks, developments in trade policy, and indications from the Federal Reserve regarding possible rate cuts in July.

Insights from Market Analyst Amish Baliga
To gain further insight into Indian markets, we spoke with independent market analyst Amish Baliga. He noted that the recent surge in Indian markets is primarily due to attractive valuations following a significant correction over the past six months. Baliga pointed out that foreign institutional investors (FIIs), who had been net sellers, have turned into buyers, reflecting a shift in market sentiment.

He also highlighted the potential risks associated with upcoming tariff deadlines, expressing concern that a lack of resolution could lead to supply chain disruptions and negatively impact corporate performance. Furthermore, Baliga mentioned that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) may be poised to cut rates in April, contributing to positive momentum in banking and consumption-related stocks.

As for future projections, Baliga anticipates that the Nifty may trade within a band of 23,000 to 23,800, with a possible drop back to 22,000 if tariff negotiations do not yield favorable outcomes.

In conclusion, as markets react to geopolitical tensions and economic indicators, the coming weeks will be critical for investors looking to navigate the complexities of trade policies and central bank decisions.

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